Exact calculation (combinatorial analysis) in conjunction with simulation Can exact computation be used with simulation to get an accurate picture of what to expect long term for a given set of conditions? The main problem that needs to be overcome is that calculations need to be fast enough to compile a sufficient number of rounds to ensure the sim's data is useful in identifying longer term trends. Since each and every data point is a quality point, though, it doesn't take an overwhelming number of rounds before identifiable patterns emerge. Additionally, accuracy of long term expectations will be very good. I have a program that I feel can do this.
More about the data generation program What I wanted to do with this program was to get a start at using simulation in conjunction with exact combinatorial analysis. My tdca program can simulate a heads up player versus dealer game while computing/displaying exact expected values for an input rules set as rounds are dealt. I was able to extend this so that overall expected values using total dependent basic strategy prior to each round are recorded in a text file along with the shoe's composition before the round is dealt. Other data recorded are player blackjacks, dealer blackjacks, and +/- result of the round using total dependent basic strategy.
Open source Excel spreadsheet free download
This is version 2 of a demo of my Excel spreadsheet that uses data from the above mentioned program. I have opened the source code so anyone can add a new feature to it if so inclined. At its core are the most basic of parameters - frequency of count and expected values at each betting ramp level using basic strategy. What makes the data unique is that expected values are computed using combinatorial analysis for each and every round.
This spreadsheet/data system has these simple components:
Record computed overall expected value using basic strategy
Deal cards and play according to basic strategy
Record new shoe composition
Repeat until penetration level is encountered
Counting systems are not considered until after data is entered. True count and running count for a given count can be computed from the shoe composition data and integrated into the spreadsheet.
Unless you are trying to add a new feature, mainly you just run macros:
ImportData macro to enter data into the spreadsheet
ManageDisplay macro to choose counting systems and spreads to show data and charts for
MiscInfo macro to display miscellaneous data
DeleteAllData macro to remove all data from the spreadsheet
New counts can be added in the CountLibrary sheet.
You will need Excel installed on your computer to run the demo. I have version 9. Version 9 or any later version should work.
Address any questions or comments to kc@bjstrat.net
Download Excel simulation data demo Version 2