Risk of ruin is computed based on a method outlined in The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin using bet spread, average EV, and count frequencies based on all of the data entered in the spreadsheet so far.
Player blackjacks (when no dealer blackjack): 618 (4.75%) Expected blackjacks (when no dealer blackjack): 4.58% Average calculated pre-deal EV (using basic strategy): -.6547% Full shoe pre-deal EV: -.5416%
Flat Bet 1 Unit Flat bet: +51.0 units @$10/unit = +$510.00 Expected (from pre-round EV): -85.23 units @$10/unit = -$852.30 Expected (from full shoe EV): -70.51 units @$10/unit = -$705.10 Average Hi-Lo true count: -0.28 Average UKO running count: -1.81 (IRC=-4) Average TKO true count: -4.28 RoR (bank=100 units, goal=200 units): 78.74% RoR (bank=1000 units, goal=2000 units): 100.00% RoR (bank=10000 units, goal=20000 units): 100%
Counts The spreads used are what was agreed upon in the Weekeend Warrior II thread on blackjackinfo.com but they may be changed in the spreadsheet.
Hi-Lo: +429.0 units @$10/unit = +$4,290.00 Expected (from average pre-round EV): +55.54 units @10/unit = +$555.40 RoR (bank=100 units, goal=200 units): 45.04% RoR (bank=1000 units, goal=2000 units): 14.51% RoR (bank=10000 units, goal=20000 units): 0%
Unbalanced K0: +490.0 units @10$/unit = +$4,900.00 Expected (from average pre-round EV): +63.18 units @10/unit = +$631.80 RoR (bank=100 units, goal=200 units): 44.64% RoR (bank=1000 units, goal=2000 units): 12.66% RoR (bank=10000 units, goal=20000 units): 0%
True Counted KO: +518.0 units @$10/unit = +$5,180.00 Expected (from average pre-round EV): +62.13 units @10/unit = +$621.30 RoR (bank=100 units, goal=200 units): 44.71% RoR (bank=1000 units, goal=2000 units): 12.93% RoR (bank=10000 units, goal=20000 units): 0%
Chart The actual results are compared to the average of the expected EVs computed before each round. RoR is calculated using the expected EVs and the bet spread for each count. Actual results would tend to be much more volatile than expected results.
Data
